Will the Next Congress Block Tariffs?

A potential Democratic majority says it will address Trump administration trade policy on day one. There’s a lot to consider of context to consider if they do.

Our organization is fiercely non-partisan, and if you’ve read any of our commentary on the Trump, Biden, Obama and Bush administration policies on trade and manufacturing over the years, you’d likely agree. We’ve pointed out the good, the bad and the ugly.

In a past professional life, I was a partisan. I worked on Capitol Hill for House Democrats who opposed free trade agreements and saw the fissures that NAFTA, the China trade deal and the WTO caused for the Democratic Party. Even though Republican votes largely pushed those initiatives through, some Democratic support for them (including President Bill Clinton’s) led to a slow decline in working class support for the party. It also led to a far smaller base of industrialized union workers, thanks to the plant closures and offshoring that resulted from those flawed agreements.

Fast forward to today, and you hear about the plans House Democrats have if they gain a majority that many forecasters have predicted. Among the “first day” priorities, according to the New York Times, is a “move to end Mr. Trump’s tariffs and restore congressional power over trade policy.”

That priority isn’t surprising. There has been widespread and vocal concern among House Democrats (and some Republicans) about Trump’s novel and erratic utilization of trade authorities, his targeting of Canada and his level of consultation with Congress on these matters. Build on top of that public concern about the cost of living, and you have yourself an election issue. Even former Ohio Senator and current candidate Sherrod Brown, a leader in Democratic opposition to NAFTA, the China trade deal and the WTO, ran a TV ad saying he’d “stop the tariffs.”

But the details matter.

First, remember that some of the tariffs in place today — on certain imports of steel, aluminum and products from China — were initiated from 2018 to 2020 and kept in place with minor alterations by President Biden from 2021 to 2025. Biden initiated some tariffs himself, including the 100% rate on electric vehicles from China. It would be incredibly foolish for Democrats to focus on these tariffs, which have the support of many major industrial unions and a direct link to economic and national security, as well as jobs in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and elsewhere.

Second, while most policies attached to Trump don’t poll well these days, the public view on tariffs on China is generally much more nuanced. Politico asked a fair question in September of US voters and found 43% said the “US should put tariffs in place on goods being imported from China to protect local industries, even if it means costs increase.” Another 34% said the “US should avoid tariffs on goods being imported from China to keep costs low, even if it means local industries are undercut.” The remainder didn’t know.

That’s hardly a mandate for any majority to gut a significant bloc of tariffs. In fact, it’s the opposite.

There are, however, steps that the next Congress should take to strengthen our economy, address the cost of living and reindustrialize. We’ll be exploring those in upcoming posts.